Don’t Get Your Hopes Up

Will former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney run for President again in 2012?

Romney’s stepped-up schedule does seem to suggest a second bid for President Obama’s job in three years. However, considering what happened the last time he ran for President, the chances of Romney actually landing the nomination are Slim and None–and word on the street is that Slim just skipped town.

Romney came into the ‘08 Presidential game with two strikes against him: the perception that his ideological shift to the right was more fiction than fact, and the preference among many Republican primary voters for a candidate who was, ahem, a “Christian leader.” The one-two punch of Massachusetts and Mormonism was a knockout blow for Romney–a blow that led to the lame John McCain acquiring the nomination.

Republicans who regarded Romney as a crypto-moonbat or a cult member in ‘08 won’t change their minds in 2012, no matter how poorly Obama is performing as President. The GOP’s conservative base wants a nominee whose conservative credentials are not in dispute: unfortunately, Romney will never be viewed as such a candidate.

At this point, it seems likely that the GOP’s nominee in 2012 will either be former House Speaker Newt Gingrich or Alaska Governor Sarah Palin (assuming, of course, that both choose to run). Gingrich has had his issues with grassroots conservatives in the past, but his legacy as a passionate crusader for the Right’s vision will serve him in good stead on the 2012 campaign trail. Palin will obviously receive plenty of conservative support in the primaries: her only obstacle will be the perception by some moderate and conservative Republican primary voters that she cannot “seal the deal” in a general election.

Romney is a great speaker, a strong intellect, a shrewd businessman. Unfortunately, he is also someone who stands beneath a glass ceiling. Deep-seated skepticism about the sincerity of his conservatism (and deep-seated bigotry about his religion) would prevent him from becoming the GOP’s standard-bearer in 2012. He has a role to play in the GOP’s future–but it will not be the lead role.